Climate change: A Summary of the Science

Someone's just pointed me to this summary from the Royal Society. It's worth reading in full, as it's a useful outline of where there is broad agreement on the state of scientific knowledge about climate change, but also where there are uncertainties. But if you don't have that luxury here's the summary at the end:

"There is strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activity are the dominant cause of the global warming that has taken place over the last half century. This warming trend is expected to continue as are changes in precipitation over the long term in many regions. Further and more rapid increases in sea level are likely which will have profound implications for coastal communities and ecosystems.

It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future, but careful estimates of potential changes and associated uncertainties have been made. Scientists continue to work to narrow these areas of uncertainty. Uncertainty can work both ways, since the changes and their impacts may be either smaller or larger than those projected.

Like many important decisions, policy choices about climate change have to be made in the absence of perfect knowledge. Even if the remaining uncertainties were substantially resolved, the wide variety of interests, cultures and beliefs in society would make consensus about such choices difficult to achieve. However, the potential impacts of climate change are sufficiently serious that important decisions will need to be made. Climate science – including the substantial body of knowledge that is already well established, and the results of future research – is the essential basis for future climate projections and planning, and must be a vital component of public reasoning in this complex and challenging area."

The Royal Society is a Fellowship of the world's most eminent scientists and is the oldest scientific academy in continuous existence.

In case we forget

It's worth just reminding ourselves occasionally of the complete and utter mess in which Labour left the public finances when they were kicked out of office last year.

This year we'll be spending over £43bn just on the interest on our debts. That’s £830m per week. Just under £119m a day. For that money, we could
- build a new primary school every hour
- buy a new Chinook helicopter every day
- take 11 million people out of paying income tax
- triple the number of doctors in our hospitals.

Ah, luxury ...

As a non-driver, I know how valuable a service our local buses provide, especially out here in the Fens. Like many other residents, I rely on them to go shopping, to the hospital, to leisure events (even though they stop too early in the evenings and I have to get a cab back - not cheap!) and for all the other aspects of life that we take for granted.

I was on a bus yesterday to get to March and back for a meeting. I'll need a bus to get to my Body Balance class in Ely later this week, a meeting on Thursday evening, and next week for my dental check-up and physiotherapy appointment. Without the buses, I'd be marooned here in our village; and I'm reasonably young (well, 50+ if the truth be told, but not yet drawing my pension) and healthy, and have my family here at home. I dread to imagine what life would be like if I were 70+ or 80+ with no car and no family, and no bus service either.

I'd always assumed that being able to get from place to place was a fairly fundamental part of life, and that as not everyone was able to drive a car - whether, like me, because they've never passed their test, or through ill health, lack of financial resources, or whatever other reason - ensuring provision of public transport was a basic duty of the powers that be.

Apparently I'm wrong. Fenland's lovable blogger Cllr Steve Tierney has gone on the record at the Cambs Times saying that buses are 'a luxury we can no longer afford'. I somehow doubt that Cambridgeshire's residents see them in the same light.

As part of drawing up its budget for the forthcoming year, Cambridgeshire County Council consulted a number of residents about their priorities. Not surprisingly, bus services came out in the top three. And yet, despite the obvious public support for ensuring people can get out and about, the Conservative-controlled county council is about to axe all support for all bus services across the county over the course of the next four years. Any route that can't turn a profit - and that's most of them out here in the countryside - will go to the wall.

Do you agree with Mr Tierney that it's a 'luxury' for people to be able to get out and about if they haven't got a car? Or, as I suspect, do you think public transport is a little more important than that?

Another Lib Dem policy in action

Excellent news from the Liberal Democrats:

"The abolition of identity cards was confirmed yesterday, when the Identity Documents Bill was granted Royal Assent.

Liberal Democrats have consistently campaigned against ID cards, a scheme introduced by the previous Labour Government.

All existing ID cards will be cancelled within one month, and the National Identity Register, the database which contains the biographic and biometric fingerprint data of card holders, will be destroyed within two months.

The Identity Card Scheme and other biometrics work has already cost the taxpayer £292 million. The Act has saved £835 million in planned future investment."

Vince Cable shock horror probe

Pushing even the weather and transport chaos into second place on the radio news this morning was the scoop from the Daily Telegraph that Vince Cable admits relationships in the coalition aren't always harmonious and that he could quit his role as business secretary if pushed too far.

My first reaction to this was astonishment that a newspaper like the Telegraph would think it appropriate to use a 'sting' operation like this against a senior politician in a case that didn't involve crime or wrongdoing.

My second was that disagreement, perhaps even strong disagreement, in the coalition is hardly news. For two such opposed political parties to work together is always going to be difficult and create pressures and tensions. If that weren't the case I'd be very worried, frankly. What on earth did these 'journalists' unearth that wasn't already commonplace?

My third was anger at the 'journalists' concerned who used Vince's constituency surgery to pose as constituents and conduct this charade. I've been an elected politician who has held surgeries for the people who elected me to come with any problems and concerns. It's a service I'd hope all elected politicians would offer, and one that shouldn't be abused. Our members of parliament shouldn't always have to be thinking 'is this a real constituent in front of me with a real problem, or just someone pretending in order to get a story?'.

This shouldn't be an embarrassment for Vince. But it sure as hell should be for the Telegraph.

Not before time

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has announced an end to child detention for immigration purposes. He has confirmed that the family wing of Yarls Wood detention centre will close immediately, and that no child will be held in detention for immigration reasons over Christmas.

The incarceration of children who had done no wrong was an appalling act by the last Labour government, and one of the many reasons I am truly glad to have seen Labour defeated at the last General Election.

Tidings of comfort and joy indeed, and something for liberals to be truly proud of today.

Snow clearance

Thanks to Mark Pack for his very helpful (not to mention seasonal) observations on whether or not it's OK to clear snow from outside your home. Another tabloid myth busted.

Hoary old chestnuts

That Eric Pickles has got my dander right up again.

Not content with telling councils how to collect the bins or where to put railings, Mr Pickles is now moving on to banning local authorities from including non-Christian elements in any celebrations they organise in winter.

Yes, that's right, not just banning local councils from failing to include the Christian religion; but banning councils from organising winter celebrations which include anything other than Christianity. Apparently, local councils should not be free to decide to run events called Winterval, or Winter Lights, and must include 'Christmas lights, Christmas trees, carol services and nativity scenes'. Who died and made Mr Pickles supreme ruler of the universe?

Mr Pickles is Communities Secretary in the coalition government. That's the department responsible for local government. He is also a Conservative. I had thought that one of the things Conservatives shared with Liberal Democrats was some respect for local government, local decision-making and local determination. Apparently not. Has Mr Pickles really got nothing better to do than to micro-manage the bin collections, street furniture and Christmas celebrations of every council in the country?

The coalition government will shortly be steering a Localism Bill through parliament, aimed at reducing central control of local councils so that they can be freed up to get on with working for their residents rather than for civil servants in Whitehall. Does Mr Pickles have even a glimmer of understanding of the local freedom and local choice his government wants to promote? And if not, is he really the right person to hold the post he currently has? Or is he, as I suspect, more interested in grabbing cheap tabloid headlines and whooping up the readership of the Daily Mail into a frenzy, than in liberating local councils to represent local people?

Why should a religion to which only half the population of the UK adheres be given a monopoly by the Government on holding celebrations in winter? It's not even as if Jesus was born in December anyway; the church took the date over from a much older pagan tradition. And to be honest, how much is there in our Christmas celebrations that's religious anyway? There's nothing particularly Christian about tinsel, mince pies, snowmen, or tacky wrapping paper. Is Mr Pickles going to ban those too?

The urban legend of Birmingham Council's Winterval in the 1990s has been endlessly recycled by people whose favourite start to the day is harrumphing into their Daily Express about how Britain's gone downhill since the 1930s, to show that we're all going to hell in a handcart. It's supposed to have been part of a politically correct plot to obliterate Christmas. The fact that during Winterval "there was a banner saying Merry Christmas across the front of the council house, Christmas lights, Christmas trees in the main civil squares, regular carol-singing sessions by school choirs, and the Lord Mayor sent a Christmas card with a traditional Christmas scene wishing everyone a Merry Christmas" is of course set to one side as it rather inconveniently gets in the way of a good story.

Under Mr Pickles, it appears that instead of local government run from the centre by politically correct box-tickers, we're going to see local government run from the centre by ignorant populists. I'm really not sure which is worse.

But then, what more seasonal at Christmas than another load of hoary old chestnuts from Mr Eric Pickles?

Royal wedding

It shows you're a political anorak when you hear that Will and Kate's wedding is going to be on 29 April, and your first thought is "What will that do to the timetable for the council elections?"!

Ralph's story

Project management

Surveying my desk this morning, I was reminded of this wonderful observation (source unknown).

“The typical project goes through 6 phases:

1. Enthusiasm
2. Disillusionment
3. Panic
4. Search for the Guilty
5. Punishment of the Innocent
6. Praise and Honour to the Non-Participants”.

So this is what we have come to, is it?

Airport security for my short trip to Jersey last weekend was intrusive enough, but I found this quite appalling. It appears we may already have let the terrorists win.

Absolute travesty

A Crown Court hearing at Doncaster has today dismissed the appeal of Paul Chambers against his conviction for 'menace'. In a moment of frustration when his flight was held up in January, he had posted on Twitter a message saying "Crap! Robin Hood airport is closed. You've got a week and a bit to get your shit together otherwise I'm blowing the airport sky high!!"

Since his arrest, he has been convicted, fined and lost his job as a financial manager. The costs of this ludicrous and disproportionate case have escalated with his latest bid to have the verdict overturned. The option of taking the case to the High Court will increase his costs still further. You can donate here. I just have.

Not your usual day at the office

I'd booked a meeting with my line manager at Party HQ for 3pm yesterday, but by the time I'd got to London KX at 2:30pm the building was effectively in lockdown mode. When I got to Westminster, I walked through the demonstration as far as the Abbey, then round to Great Smith Street, where I got a message (BlackBerry battery almost dead by this point) saying my meeting had been moved, so I cut through to the Abingdon Street car park and back through the demo again.

Between the Houses of Parliament and the Abbey it all looked fairly good natured and peaceful, so after my meeting, and with no BlackBerry battery left for calls or texts or email, I headed back to London KX and Ely, blissfully unaware of what was going on at Millbank, had a quick coffee in Tesco's while waiting for the 1855 bus, and got to Sutton just before 7:30pm. I got off the bus in the High Street and - as I'd told the family I would - headed straight for my book group (reading Hons and Rebels by Jessica Mitford this month, since you ask) and got back home by about 9:30pm.

Meanwhile, the family, having forgotten what I said about my plans, had been worried sick seeing all this kicking off on the television, and assumed that because I had not been in touch I was at the least incarcerated in Party HQ, if not injured or worse. They'd almost got to the point of ringing the hospitals and the morgue when I arrived home at about 9:30pm, to my total bewilderment at the reception I received.

Well said

Mike Smithson from Political Betting on Labour's response to the Woolas case.

Let's Do It

I can't imagine I'll see anything funnier this year (or possibly next, too) than Ann Widdecombe and Anton du Beke's Charleston last night on Strictly Come Dancing. Anton's choreography and performance were utterly brilliant, and credit to the old bird for gamely going along with it and giving it her best. There's a serious danger that I might actually end up liking her by the end of the series, and that would never do, would it?

Co-educational skateboarding in Afghanistan

I don't know whether this is a cause for optimism or sadness, but it's very moving nonetheless.

SKATEISTAN: TO LIVE AND SKATE KABUL from Diesel New Voices on Vimeo.

Ask a silly question

The announcement that the cap on university tuition fees is set to rise to £9,000 a year is not exactly unexpected, but that doesn't make it any more acceptable.

There'll be a lot of synthetic rage from Labour, of course. That's Labour, who introduced the current system of tuition fees; who introduced top-up fees when they said they had legislated to prevent them; and who commissioned the Browne report which is the basis of today's announcement. I suspect they're rather hoping we'll forget that.

But just because your opponents are posturing like Vogue models doesn't automatically mean you have right on your side.

You can dress it up how you like. You can say it's not fees because it's paid back afterwards. You can say it's a graduate 'contribution' not a graduate 'tax', as if that somehow makes things better. You can argue that some students from poor backgrounds will get help.

But at the end of the day, many Liberal Democrat MPs signed a promise that they would not vote to raise fees in this parliament. And if they did that, they need to stick to it.

Of course, the problem with the Browne report into higher education funding is that if you ask the wrong question you get the wrong answer. Where we should have started was with a searching examination of what our current university system is there for - and only when we were clear about that should we have moved on to how to pay for it.

I've always been of the opinion that Tony Blair's ambition of 50 per cent of young people going to university was frankly bonkers. It's the sort of thing that's made it possible to get a degree in Casino Operations Management from the University of Blackpool (yes, really), or a BA in Applied Golf Management Studies from the University of Birmingham. I suppose at least with the first option there's a chance you might recoup some of your student debt at the blackjack tables.

As more and more young people are encouraged onto more and more expensive courses, the intellectual currency is inflated and the value of the degree (even assuming it's a sensible subject) goes down and down. Already burdened with the prospect of major debts on graduation, the next generation are going to find it difficult if not impossible to own their own home, or afford to start a family while they are still young.

Taking three years from 18 to 21 to complete a degree while living away from home is an expensive option, whoever provides it. Perhaps we should be looking at more flexible solutions, including OU style distance learning (I did my MBA that way ten years ago), or periods of study interrupted by periods of employment to save up for the next module.

Colleges of further education (declares interest - my husband is Deputy Principal of an FE College) have their part to play, working in partnerships or franchise arrangements with universities to deliver higher education modules locally. Perhaps some subjects really aren't suitable for university courses, and could be taught in other ways (surely we managed to turn out croupiers and groundsmen before they became degree-level subjects?).

And instead of shovelling more and more 18 year olds onto higher education courses of dubious merit or even ultimate financial worth, what about more investment in good solid locally delivered vocational education and training relevant to the needs of the local economy?

But if burdening the next generation with mortgage-style debts is the answer, Browne must have been asked a very silly question indeed.

Votes for prisoners

Not before time, the government is finally to abide by the decision of the European Court of Human Rights, and lift the blanket ban on votes for prisoners that has been in place since 1870.

The Electoral Commission has already been thinking about the practical details of implementing this decision, which won't necessarily be straightforward. But I really don't have a problem with the principle behind the Court's ruling.

Imprisonment isn't just about punishment. It's about three things: keeping the public safe from people like serial killers and rapists who are serious dangers to life and limb; depriving people of their liberty as a penalty for the wrong they have done; and preparing them to join society again when they have completed their time in jail. Too often, it seems to me, we concentrate on the second of these at the expense of the third.

And deprivation of liberty doesn't mean denial of all rights. I did once meet a cab driver who was keen to persuade me of the merits of his view that prisoners should be kept merely as living stores of spare parts for surgery, but I suspect that's a bridge too far for most people.

The question, therefore, is not whether prisoners have rights, but which rights they should have, and which prisoners should be entitled to the right to cast a vote in elections, and which should not.

28 other European countries give prisoners the right to vote, as do two Australian and two American states. I'm not aware that the Dante's Inferno being foretold by those who oppose votes for prisoners has actually come to pass in those countries. The practicalities will naturally take some working out, but the principle is the right one.

That Was The Week That Was ...

Well, I've not often had weeks like last week, and I hope to goodness I don't have one again. That was the week in which:

• I worked ten times my contracted hours to make sure the party's East of England regional conference last Saturday was a success
• My kitchen was taken over for a week by my beloved offspring's (still unfinished) craft project - every available surface covered in painted planks and no room to make a sandwich or iron a shirt
  
• Every white blouse I own was ruined in an unfortunate accident involving burgundy-coloured gloss paint from above project, white spirit, and a U-bend in the utility room backing up into the washing machine
• We decided to get away from it all for a few days, and on Tuesday evening booked a five-day holiday in Marrakech starting this Saturday; only for OFSTED to announce on Friday morning that in three weeks' time it is inspecting husband's college where he's the College's OFSTED nominee, so we had to cancel our (non refundable) trip
• Husband's credit card was blocked, as it was on a list of cards at risk of having been cloned
• One of our dogs developed a very serious case of gastro-enteritis, and was admitted very deyhdrated and with epic D&V to the vet's on Sunday, where she's still on a drip
• Son's girlfriend's grandfather was admitted into intensive care on Friday, and passed away on Saturday.
  

Still, at least the weather was nice ...